Epoch HealthYoung Adult Mortality 70 Percent Higher Than Expected, Mostly From Unnatural Causes, Study Finds

A recent study published in JAMA Network Open reveals a stark 70% increase in young adult mortality rates compared to pre-2011 projections. The research, analyzing more than 3.3 million deaths among US adults aged 25-44 between 1999 and 2023, identifies drug poisoning as the leading cause of death, with significant contributions from alcohol-related deaths and cardiometabolic conditions. The findings highlight two distinct mortality increase phases: 2011-2019 and 2020-2023.

Key Points:

• Drug poisoning emerged as the primary cause of death among young adults since 2014, accounting for one-third of all deaths in 2023, with a notable spike in 2020
• The study documented 71,124 excess deaths in 2023, representing a 70% increase above projected rates, with natural causes (16%), transport-related deaths (14%), alcohol-related deaths (9%), and homicide (8%) following drug poisoning as leading causes
• Cardiometabolic conditions showed substantial contribution to mortality rates, particularly kidney-related deaths and pregnancy/childbirth complications
• By 2022, nearly 80% of deaths involved both heroin and fentanyl, with opioids factoring in approximately 72% of overdose deaths
• The 25-34 age group showed a significant gender disparity, with male overdose death rates exceeding female rates by 146.8%

“The fact that we saw a real growth in mortality at these relatively young ages is very worrying because it suggests that many more deaths may come in the future as these cohorts age into midlife and beyond, if these trends aren’t reversed before then.”
— Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Study Author & Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Minnesota

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